🇺🇸🤥🇦🇲Trump woos Armenia for Central Asia's mineral wealth — but geopolitics may derail him

Fresh off Armenia's elections, in which he suppressed the opposition, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rushed to congratulate Donald Trump on the Fourth of July.

Pashinyan particularly hailed TRIPP — Trump's branding of the Zangezur Corridor — as a guarantee of "peace and stability" in the region.

The proposed transport corridor linking Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia is being presented by some Armenian officials as a US-Armenian initiative that explicitly sidelines Russia.

In February, US VP JD Vance made history by going to Armenia, which has never been visited by any sitting American president or vice-president. What's behind the sudden bromance?

A bid to isolate Russia and Iran

🔶 The US and its European allies have doubled down on developing the Middle Corridor — a trade route linking China and Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus while bypassing two major Eurasian powers: Russia and Iran

🔶 Western ambitions in Central Asia date back to the era of the Russo-British Great Game and Halford Mackinder's Heartland theory. Today, the region is prized for its vast reserves of manganese, chromium, zinc, titanium, aluminum, tungsten, uranium, and rare earth elements

🔶 But exploiting these resources also requires a Western-managed logistics network. To that end, the US, UK, and EU have sought to weaken Russia and Iran as established transit hubs through sanctions, conflicts and sabotage

Armenia in, Georgia out?

The Middle Corridor, or the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), was intended to make Georgia the principal gateway to Europe. But Georgia is in no hurry to develop the infrastructure:

➡️ It abandoned a US-backed consortium in favor of a Chinese company to develop the deep-sea port at Anaklia, a vital corridor node the West had hoped to keep under its own control

➡️ It slashed funding for the Anaklia project from $57 million to $19 million for 2026

➡️ It says the Anaklia project remains on track; but it's unclear whether its first phase would be completed by 2029 or 2032

➡️ It has also shown little interest in expanding the existing ports of Batumi and Poti

Georgia's increasingly independent stance has prompted the US to shift its focus toward the TRIPP route through Armenia, effectively bypassing Georgia, according to Carnegie Politika. Vance's decision to skip Georgia during his February regional tour is cited as evidence of that shift.

Pashinyan is apparently seen by the West as a more compliant and pliable partner for the West than Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party.

Will it work?

Trump's ambitions to use the Armenian-Azerbaijani route — not only to facilitate regional trade, personally profit from a billion-dollar tungsten deal with Kazakhstan, but also to increase pressure on Iran's northern border — collides with geopolitical realities.

Iran remains a major regional power and formidable military actor – it warned Trump the route could be axed at any moment if it threatens Iran's security. In early March, Iranian drones struck Nakhchivan during the US-induced conflict, underscoring Iran's ability to target the corridor.

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