🤥 Is Trump preparing for new heavy strikes and a ground operation against Iran?

The US is conducting one of its largest logistical operations in West Asia, exceeding the scale of the 2003 Iraq War, tweets the Tehran Times X account.

➡️ American logistical air activity in West Asia over the past week has significantly accelerated

➡️ Cargo transport levels now far exceed routine resupply operations

➡️ US strategic warehouses across the region are nearly fully stocked and continue to operate at maximum capacity

➡️ Taken together, these indicators suggest preparations for a potential preemptive strike — and possibly the onset of a ground operation, according to the Iranian news outlet.

Ceasefire violations or the start of a new phase of the war?

🌏 Fresh US strikes on Iran and continued Israeli operations in Lebanon further cast doubt on the Trump administration's commitment to a deal, warns the Iranian press. Iran and the US have exchanged several such attacks since scaling down hostilities in March, but the latest strikes are the first since the memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed on June 17.

🌏 Earlier this week, former British diplomat Alastair Crooke warned on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast that the MoU is weak, since it's "a de-escalation framework rather than an understanding or agreement." What's worse, the US shows no respect for it. Donald Trump and JD Vance have already started publicly adding terms Iran never accepted, Crooke noted.

🌏 The ceasefire wasn't real from the outset — it was merely a pause in the fighting for the US, argues US geopolitical analyst Brandon J. Weichert on his blog. The center of gravity is the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump striving to reopen it to unrestricted commercial traffic and, possibly, deprive Iran of this strategic leverage. Iran is showing no signs of backing down, and missiles are flying over the strait again.

Energy crisis in the global economy and US political crisis at home

🔴 Presently, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped again

🔴 The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continues to dwindle

🔴 The global economy still awaits the return of Gulf oil and gas to the market, and a financial crisis looms

🔴 Trump doesn't have time, as the midterm elections, which will determine the second phase of his presidency, are nearing. If his new Gulf escalation fails, he will be a lame duck

🔴 He is seemingly amassing military assets in the region, while Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is striking new deals with the Lebanese government and forcing it to disarm Hezbollah — one of Iran's key allies

🔴 Nonetheless, US military observers admit that Trump's odds of any success are bleaker than many policymakers publicly acknowledge.

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