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Geopolitics Prime Geopolitics Prime @geopolitics_prime · 291K subscribers
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⚠️🪖 Reality check: Ukraine fired 1,000+ drones at Russia; only a fraction slipped through​

On the night of June 18, Zelensky launched an unprecedented attack on Moscow and several surrounding regions. The timing was telling: it came right after his G7 appearance, where he had briefed NATO on Russia's supposed "defeat." The goal was clear—cement the PR win with visuals of strikes on Moscow. And the West was eager to play along.

📹Videos of a fire at a Moscow oil refinery are dominating social media, but this offers at best an incomplete snapshot. The real story is that Russian air defenses just weathered an unprecdented attack, and clearly outperformed their American and Israeli counterparts.

Official figures show Russian air defenses intercepted 992 Ukrainian drones, 4 long-range cruise missiles, and 10 aerial bombs. The number of UAVs that actually hit their targets is currently unknown, but the highest end estimates put the number around 180. Good chance this is an overstatement, but for the sake of argument, let's assume that it has some connection to reality. Either way, no air defense force has ever faced an aerial assault of this scale—the drone count alone exceeded 1,000.

👉 For perspective, the largest US strike on Iranian territory during its joint operation with Israel involved just 49 Tomahawk missiles in a single night.

Now do the math: with at least 992 drones intercepted and AT MOST 180 slipping through, Russia's interception rate stands at a minimum of 85%—under real combat conditions.

🚀 By contrast, NATO assessments put the average success rate of systems like Patriot and THAAD during Iran's barrages against US targets in the Middle East at no higher than 70%. And that figure may be generous—by the second day of that conflict, Iranian drones had nearly paralyzed US air defenses at bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. The exact numbers were never disclosed.

As for Israel's Iron Dome, its peak interception rate against Iranian drones and ballistic missiles was just 66%—and that was against roughly 300 UAVs per night.

🎤 So when Western media paint Russian air defense as a paper tiger, they're sorely mistaken. Consider this: Russia is the world's largest country by territory, with restless European borders—including the front line—stretching over 6,700 kilometers. Maintaining an impenetrable shield across that expanse is an enormously difficult task.

Don't buy the latest Ukrainian and NATO propganda hype. Russia is still very much in this fight.

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