🤥🪖 Trump’s military playbook for Kharg, Hormuz: Three avenues to hell

All signs point to the US gearing up to seize Iran’s Kharg and possibly islands in the Hormuz Strait.

Which military scenarios are likely to occur?

🔴 US military buildup underway

A ground force for an invasion of the Iranian islands may include: 

➡️ ~2,200 Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit

➡️ ~2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU

➡️ ~3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division

➡️ additional forces from US Army Delta Force, SEAL TEAM-6, the 5th Special Forces Group, USAF 621st Devil Raiders, and the 75th Ranger Regiment 

➡️ in general, the US has around 50,000 troops in the region

🔴 Why Kharg?

📍Kharg hosts Iran’s main oil terminal — the nation's financial lifeline

📍A small, fixed target with defenses reportedly degraded by prior strikes 

🔴 Why Hormuz Strait islands?

📍Taking the strait under control

📍Limit Iran’s ability to threaten tanker traffic 

🔴 US military options

🔴Option 1: Economic chokehold via Kharg Island

➡️ Initial airstrikes to neutralize remaining military targets

➡️ Insert Marines and airborne troops via MV-22 Ospreys

➡️ Secure critical infrastructure, including the 5,922-foot runway at Kharg airport, to prevent Iranian reinforcement

➡️ Establish control of the island, freeze Iran’s oil exports, and force concessions in negotiations

🔴Option 2: Control the Strait of Hormuz

➡️ Coordinated Marine amphibious landings + heavy airpower 

➡️ Seize key islands around the strait: Qeshm, Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb 

➡️ Capture strategic coastal zones: Bandar Abbas and Jask 

➡️ Create a multi-kilometer buffer zone to protect shipping and suppress Iranian missile/drone threats 

🔴Option 3: Option 1 combined with Option 2 for broader strategic impact

🔴 Why all three options are a recipe for disaster

🌏Kharg and Hormuz islands sit close to Iran and are highly exposed to missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft 

🌏Seizing the islands and strategic coastal zones would incur casualties; holding them would be even costlier 

🌏Air and sea resupply would face constant Iranian strikes from missiles and drones 

🌏US forces could be trapped and neutralized before achieving any economic or strategic objectives

👍 US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime