It is now extremely difficult to predict which project will turn out to be a scam and which will "moon." The methods used to analyze this a few years ago are no longer valid.

Success in crypto has become a matter of 51% luck. A retail investor you’d never expect might successfully launch a token; a token from someone completely off your radar could skyrocket to a valuation of hundreds of millions, while teams that previously achieved an ATH of at least 10 million might fail to break the 100k mcap.

For this reason, past projects don't matter at all.

It is mostly all about luck! Don't forget that.