📈 First Hike in Three Years — And How Markets Priced It

25bp to 3.75%–4.00% · 53% Odds of Another Move in October –
① What Landed: The federal funds rate rose 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, voted 12–0 — the first hike since July 2023 and the first change of 2026
② The Real Signal is the Dot Plot: The median year-end 2026 rate was revised up from 3.75% to 4.10% — 12 officials expect one more hike, 4 expect two, only 2 expect none
③ No Relief from Warsh: Not confident inflation is moving toward target, no forward guidance, no December commitment — "if inflation doesn't come down fast enough, we're prepared to act again"

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