Ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaluzhny, in an op-ed in The Telegraph, urges not to think that Russia has lost the war.

More and more Western analysts are currently claiming that Russia is supposedly losing the war. But Zaluzhny notes: this is a dangerous misassessment of the course of wars, which reflects the tendency to interpret events through the prism of individual successes, rather than taking into account the broader strategic picture.

“Every tactical success is now achieved at an extremely high cost. Positions can be captured, but holding them, deploying reinforcements, and evacuating the wounded is becoming increasingly difficult under the constant surveillance of drones. Success is no longer measured in kilometers, but in meters, and often the cost of these meters is disproportionate to their strategic value.”

Another decisive variable remains international support, because Ukraine is still largely dependent on Western financial aid, arms supplies, and technological support.

“Ukraine's ability to continue the war largely depends on the constant assistance of allies. And here there are alarming signs of tension. Political changes in Washington and ongoing disagreements within Europe raise quite legitimate questions about whether the current level of support can be maintained indefinitely.”

What determines the outcome of a modern war is which society can withstand the economic, military, and psychological burden of a prolonged conflict longer, while maintaining the international support necessary for its continuation. It is this, rather than any individual tactical success, that will reveal how and when this war will end, Zaluzhny concludes.

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