The phrase “House of Cards” is often associated today with a Netflix political drama, but its original meaning refers to a structure that is inherently unstable. That idea is exactly how Sarah Thiele, who began this work as a PhD student at the University of British Columbia and is now at Princeton, and her co-authors describe today’s satellite mega constellation system in a new study released as a preprint on arXiv.

Their choice of words is supported by the numbers. Across all Low-Earth Orbit mega constellations, calculations show that a “close approach”, defined as two satellites passing within less than 1 kilometer of each other, happens about once every 22 seconds. For Starlink alone, such encounters occur roughly every 11 minutes. In addition, each of Starlink’s thousands of satellites must carry out an average of 41 maneuvers each year to avoid collisions with other objects in orbit.

At first glance, this may look like a carefully managed system functioning as intended. But engineers know that “edge cases”, events that fall outside normal operating conditions, are often what trigger major failures. According to the paper, solar storms represent one such edge case for satellite mega constellations. Under typical conditions, solar storms disrupt satellite operations in two main ways.

Days away from irreversible collisions
According to their calculations, as of June 2025, if satellite operators were to lose their ability to send commands for avoidance maneuvers, there would be a catastrophic collision in around 2.8 days. Compare that to the 121 days that they calculated would have been the case in 2018, before the megaconstellation era, and you can see why they are concerned. Perhaps even more disturbingly, if operators lose control for even just 24 hours, there’s a 30% chance of a catastrophic collision that could act as the seed case for the decades-long process of Kessler syndrome.