For more than three decades, satellites have tracked global sea-level change, and a recent analysis shows that projections made in the mid-1990s were strikingly accurate. The findings, published in Earth’s Future, an open-access journal of the American Geophysical Union, come from two researchers at Tulane University.

“The ultimate test of climate projections is to compare them with what has played out since they were made, but this requires patience – it takes decades of observations,” said lead author Torbjörn Törnqvist, Vokes Geology Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

“We were quite amazed how good those early projections were, especially when you think about how crude the models were back then, compared to what is available now,” Törnqvist said. “For anyone who questions the role of humans in changing our climate, here is some of the best proof that we have understood for decades what is really happening, and that we can make credible projections.”