Key takeaways from our latest Eyes on the Market:

1) Oil led everything. Brent rose 9.27% to $96.54 as US-Iran strikes resumed. BTC added 2.28% to $79,808, ETH 1.62% to $2,490.60, the S&P 0.40% and the Nasdaq 100 0.73%.

2) Waller signals dovish. Polymarket hike odds fell from 51% to 41% on Thursday's remarks. BTC wicked to $82,262 and closed the session up 5.67%.

3) Payrolls reversed it two days later. 162K against 53K consensus took hike odds back to 49%. BTC fell 2.95% and ETH 2.69%.

4) The move is not levered. Aggregate OI is $139.7B, up 3.5% and the highest since mid-January. Coin-denominated BTC OI fell from 762.2K to 669.6K since mid-August, even as BTC moved from $63K to $80K.

5) ETFs took $1.2B, a third straight week above $1B, the first such run since July 2025. BTC drew $986.7M including $730.8M on September 3, the largest day since January 14. BTC ETFs AUM crossed $103.3B, 6.32% of supply.

Read the full piece here.