Prediction markets have been around as a concept for a long time.

1503: betting on the next Pope
1916: Americans betting on the presidential race
1988: Iowa Electronic Markets, the first modern prediction market infrastructure built, gained traction
2018: Augur peaked at 265 users and failed due to poor UX and prohibitive gas fees.

In 2024, prediction markets broke out during the U.S. presidential election.

Today, volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket have crossed $58B.

Read more about the history of prediction markets and what has led to their recent explosive growth in our article here.