Ran into some problems related to mass reporting and other insane behaviors by miscreants, which is why the original group chat with all the members was detached and some other things have been rearranged. Hopefully we can get that resolved.
In the meantime, these are our favorite posts:
> The Mother of All Pain Trades (the hard landing) by Gerhard Schrader July 2023. A lot has changed in the 13 months since he wrote this, however, that we nor he could anticipate. If there's interest we might revisit this.
> Restoring Credibility — what motivated the recent interest rate hiking cycle (and what could motivate interest rate cuts)? Hint: it's not all about inflation.
> Dissecting US hegemony (the dollar)
> How the Chinese bloc's monetary divorce from the US bloc is supportive of the price of gold for years to come.
> Repo, Treasury market leverage, and the Basis Trade.
> The End of Unemployment: looking at how demographic trends will reshape economies in the future.
> Examining the Yen carry trade and how asset purchases by foreign non-officials are often funded in depreciating currencies. The carry trade is unhedged, which exposes them to losses when the funding currency appreciates against the investment currency.
> The government of Japan is itself arguably involved in a giant carry trade.
> How monetary and fiscal policy could change under a Trump administration.
> How mass immigration prolongs shelter inflation.
> The importance of energy and what "peak EROI" may mean for our future (and perhaps our recent past).
> Why is "this time different"? Because of the fiscal picture.
> Reasons why the US skirted recession (at least in official terms) in 2023 and 2024
> In many ways, we did have a recession in 2022.
> The Politics of Recessions and how a government shutdown could lead to contraction in the fiscal deficit (and thus recession).
> Learn about how money works and makes the world spin
And many others that I've left out.
We have some other ideas in the bag. For example we still want to cover more of China and the US-China trade war.
Feel free to leave a suggestion in the comments.
Post #1132
76
Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts