Public events in Irkutsk, cancelled, citywide community clean-up due last Saturday, was officially postponed

Not acting like its plague, acting like it’s something else, e.g. death in Arizona last year.

US, about 7 cases per year, usually from Prairie dogs

1924, last human to human transmission in US

Plague is endemic in Russia, especially SE Russia, near Mongolia.

Russia acting like it is a transmissible disease

Potential to be viral

Plague escape protocols are well rehearsed

Deaths despite antibiotics

Drug resistance plague?

Death despite prophylactic antibiotics

Engineering antibiotic resistance is possible

Mongolia, Kazakhstan, impose “health surveillance”

Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute, history

For Anti-Plague, read biolab.

How much Russia is using AI for research

Lack of transparency in UK and US as well.

Known Unknowns

Precise diagnostic and PM reports

Microbiological reports, genome sequences

Route of exposure

Exactly what happened in the lab

Did containment and reporting procedures work
Russian covert motivation?

Weaponised microorganism?

Level of antibiotic resistance

Enhance person to person spread capabilities

Darya Shipilova (Glubina)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/10/07/us-formally-demands-russia-explain-plague-outbreak/

Svetlana Shipilova

“I know the truth,”

“I’m having to fend off stupid acquaintances who believed all this – the clever ones didn’t believe it, of course.

“Not even all medical professionals understand it’s impossible to break a test tube like that,”

“Even if you fling it at the wall. Only an amateur could say something like that.

“Even hypothetically, you simply can’t spill what’s inside or break the tube – they’re that well protected.”

“They simply let my daughter die.”
Russia and transparency

1979 anthrax accident in Sverdlovsk, former Soviet Union.

Spores were accidentally released from a military facility.

Death toll, CDC puts it at a minimum of around 65 to 70 deaths from (inhalational of anthrax), deaths occurred April 1979.

May 1992, Boris Yeltsin acknowledged that it had in fact resulted from Soviet military bio-weapons work.

About 13 years of denial.

Chernobyl accident, April 26th, 1986

Explosions, graphite fire, huge amount of radioactive material into the atmosphere.

Pripyat evacuated 36 hours later

May Day parades, Kyiv went ahead, May 1st

Alarms in Sweden and England


New R value?

Madagascar 2017 — mean R₀ = 2.4

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30450266/

Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August-November 2017

2,500 cases

CDC, Pneumonic plague

R₀ = 1.18

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/rr/rr7003a1.htm

Came from CDC analysis of all reported primary pneumonic plague cases in the US from 1900 to 2009.

San Francisco in 1904
Oakland in 1919
Los Angeles in 1924.

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