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Bitcoin Approaches a Critical Macro Test
Inflation in Focus
• Bitcoin is attempting to defend the $60,000–$63,000 range ahead of the latest US core CPI release.
• A hotter inflation reading could strengthen expectations for higher interest rates, while softer data may improve liquidity conditions for risk assets.
• Bitfinex warned that current support is not yet backed by strong capital inflows, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed ETF outflows.
Conflicting Onchain Signals
• Long-term holders are accumulating 50,000–100,000 BTC per week and now control a record 14.8 million BTC, equal to roughly 75% of supply.
• However, 10.7 million BTC remain underwater, while Bitcoin has traded below the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $70,700 for more than nine months.
• CryptoQuant views this prolonged pressure on recent buyers as consistent with an unfinished bear-market cycle.
Levels to Watch
• Fidelity’s power-law model places long-term support near $58,000.
• Holding above $60,000 could reinforce the accumulation-zone scenario, while a breakdown would weaken the case for a confirmed market bottom.
Takeaway:
Bitcoin is showing signs of long-term accumulation, but institutional demand and short-term holder profitability remain weak. The inflation release and the market’s reaction around $60,000 will help determine whether the current structure is a durable base or another stage of the broader bear cycle.
Inflation in Focus
• Bitcoin is attempting to defend the $60,000–$63,000 range ahead of the latest US core CPI release.
• A hotter inflation reading could strengthen expectations for higher interest rates, while softer data may improve liquidity conditions for risk assets.
• Bitfinex warned that current support is not yet backed by strong capital inflows, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed ETF outflows.
Conflicting Onchain Signals
• Long-term holders are accumulating 50,000–100,000 BTC per week and now control a record 14.8 million BTC, equal to roughly 75% of supply.
• However, 10.7 million BTC remain underwater, while Bitcoin has traded below the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $70,700 for more than nine months.
• CryptoQuant views this prolonged pressure on recent buyers as consistent with an unfinished bear-market cycle.
Levels to Watch
• Fidelity’s power-law model places long-term support near $58,000.
• Holding above $60,000 could reinforce the accumulation-zone scenario, while a breakdown would weaken the case for a confirmed market bottom.
Takeaway:
Bitcoin is showing signs of long-term accumulation, but institutional demand and short-term holder profitability remain weak. The inflation release and the market’s reaction around $60,000 will help determine whether the current structure is a durable base or another stage of the broader bear cycle.











