72.5% of altcoins beat BTC. But half have less than a quarter of supply in profit. Uptober?
October starts with altseason talk, and the data backs it up. Glassnode sent two signals in one week.
On September 23: the rally is spot-driven and has room to run. On September 28: altcoin spot volume is almost 4x Bitcoin's, and similar spikes used to match local BTC tops. We think both are true, so the main question is who will sell into this rally.
🟢 According to Glassnode on September 23, Bitcoin moved back above its True Market Mean near $77K. It also broke through the long-term holder cluster at $84-85K that capped price for most of 2026. Over the week, 72.5% of tracked altcoins outperformed BTC. At the peak of the August squeeze, it was 39%. Altcoin perp open interest barely grew over 30 days. Spot is driving the move, so the risk of a liquidation cascade is lower. Profit-taking is still light.
⏺️ Layer one is altcoin holders themselves. For a typical altcoin in Glassnode's sample, less than 25% of supply is in profit. Three quarters of coins were bought above the current price. Every move up brings their owners closer to breakeven.
⏺️ Layer two is Bitcoin. Near $96,700, Glassnode says, buyers from 1-2 years ago get back to breakeven. On Deribit, dealer positive gamma at the $95K strikes hit a record, and their hedging can cap the move. In its September 28 OTC report, Wintermute saw net BTC selling: retail takes profit in Bitcoin and rotates into altcoins. So part of the money flowing into altcoins comes out of BTC.
⏺️ Layer three is teams. On September 30, Hyperliquid Labs unstaked 3.75M HYPE, about $329M, ahead of team payouts on October 7. According to co-founder iliensinc, one institutional buyer is taking the full amount OTC, bypassing the order book. The buyer, price and lock-up are not disclosed. After October 7, the new owner will be able to move these tokens to exchanges.
🟢 Who is leaving while the market rises?
🟤 In the same weeks, when the Fear & Greed Index hit 78, BAL holders approved winding down Balancer, with treasury distribution starting in May 2027.
🟤 Abracadabra proposed closing the protocol. MIM reserves cover less than 5% of the issued supply.
🟤 Across swaps ACX for company equity or buys it back at $0.04375. After January 8, the token will no longer give rights to this business.
🟤 ZetaChain is giving up its own L1. BitMart disclosed a balance sheet hole of about $319.5M.
🟤 Linera shut down because its token sale missed even the minimum: commitments reached only about $900K.
We already wrote about the altcoin graveyard, and it keeps growing in a green market. The rally lifts tickers, not businesses. Money flows into a narrow circle, and projects without revenue cannot raise even $900K at peak greed.
Altcoins are moving on spot, not a crowd of leveraged longs, so a mass long wipeout isn't the main risk here. The risk is elsewhere: early holders may start unloading into late buyers as the rally keeps going.
Three things are worth watching: whether profit-taking rises, how holders behave near breakeven, and who gets tokens in the coming weeks. Glassnode states the condition itself: while profit-taking stays this light, the rally has room. Once that changes, the sellers may be the ones who waited two years just to get back to breakeven.
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