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According to CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is currently diverging сильно from global M2 trends.

Since mid-2025:

• Global M2 money supply +12%
• BTC price −35%

Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong correlation with M2 — liquidity expansion often leads to price growth.

Based on this model, BTC’s “fair value” is estimated around $136K, while it trades near ~$70K.

So why the gap?

Analysts point to tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. High interest rates limit capital flow into risk assets, making BTC more sensitive to macro conditions than money supply growth.

Similar divergence is also seen vs rising US national debt (> $39T), which historically moved in line with BTC.

Such gaps between liquidity and BTC have happened before — and were usually temporary

@Cryptoz