FED DOT PLOT DELIVERS HAWKISH HIGHER-FOR-LONGER SIGNAL

The Fed’s new Dot Plot shows 12 of 18 officials expect another 25bp hike by year-end, taking rates to 4.125%, while four see rates reaching 4.375%.

The hawkish signal extends well beyond 2026: 14 officials see rates ending 2027 above today’s level, while the 2028 median stands at 3.9% versus 3.4% expected.

The longer-run rate also rose to 3.2%, suggesting officials increasingly believe neutral rates have moved higher.
(@WalterBloomberg)