On the topic of $MSTR selling $BTC:
- First, it's nothing new, they have been signaling for months now that selling BTC to fund dividends was an option. It was already the case on the last earnings call
- It's true though that they looked even more open to this idea on yesterday's earnings call. What's also new is that they explained for the first time that the theoretical threshold to choose selling BTC over MSTR to fund dividends was not 1x mNAV but 1.22x. That's a pretty big statement because it sort of forces them to stick to their word and sell BTC below that level (instead of selling MSTR shares).
- I think they want to get rid of the "If they sell a single BTC, it's over for them" narrative. They will sell some BTC, everyone will realize that nothing happens, and all the people who were parroting this stupid statement will be proven wrong once again.
- Maybe the most important thing to realize is that they "only" have to pay $125M in dividends per month. Selling $125 M worth of BTC per month has basically zero impact on the price. And even you think that "it's about the narrative impact", then let me remind you that they are *already* selling $125 M a month of a close derivative of BTC, which is the MSTR common stock.
- What they were also signaling yesterday, is that they want to see mNAV go up again. To be honest, this reminds me of the time when they said they wouldn't sell MSTR shares below 2.5x mNAV, these were the guidelines that they never respected, so take all of their plans with a grain of salt.
- Stating that they are likely to sell BTC increases optionality for Strategy, and that's imo a good thing. Another positive consequence is that for the first time, we are seeing a path where the BTC stack of MSTR doesn't only go up. For the people who are scared about Saylor holding too much BTC for the asset to remain "decentralized", this should be viewed positively.
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