The probability of the Hormuz Strait's shipping traffic returning to normal by April 30 has risen to approximately 57% on Polymarket, marking a 43% increase over the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, the current trading volume for this market is around $4.07 million.
The market uses IMF PortWatch data as the basis for settlement. A 'Yes' outcome is determined if the seven-day moving average of transiting vessels reaches or exceeds 60 on any day within the market period. The statistics include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, with only data recorded by the IMF PortWatch system being counted.
Previously, Iran's Foreign Minister stated that the strait could be safely navigated within the next two weeks under Iranian coordination.#Polymarket #HormuzStrait #ShippingTraffic #MaritimeTrade #Iran #IMFPortWatch #TradingVolume