Если бы мы брали нулевую базу — разумеется ЕР yes
Но вот учитывая дополнительный контекст:
Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).
Мне лично абсолютно непонятно, почему все ставят на партию с самой высокой имеющейся базой.