In 2026 we’ll also see #BTC going below the Realized Price (currently sitting at $56k)
Keep in mind that in Bear Markets the Realized Price usually slowly declines, so the levels might slightly change.
If we’re gonna repeat the 2022 Bear Market, -33% below the Realized Price would be $37.4k. As I mentioned, the Realized Price will likely decline this year, so by Q3-Q4 in can be at $53-54k and -33% would be around $35k. That’s the lowest I could see #BTC go this year.
As we can see, over the years BTC Volatility has decreased and the distance between the market Price and Realized Price has narrowed: from -66% in 2011 to -33% in 2022
So I believe in 2026 we will have something between -24% & -31% below the Realized Price which means $40-43k
That’s basically how I came up with my $35-45k Bear Market Bottom Target using this on-chain indicator
Post #12308
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CryptoBullet Let me explain my $40k +/-5k #BTC Bear Market Bottom Target One of the Key indicators that I pay attention to during bear markets is #BTC Realized Price [ Realized Price is value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words…