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Contrary to expectations, the euro could actually strengthen against the US dollar in the event of a major war in Europe. This could be driven by the wider adoption of the euro in new member states, as well as, in the future, stronger demand for the euro from Poland if the country were directly involved in a war.
There are also several other factors that could support the euro. For example, if the European Central Bank maintained relatively tight monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates, the interest-rate differential could become more favorable for the euro. In addition, stronger European fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure could stimulate economic activity and increase demand for European assets. A weaker dollar, lower US growth, or concerns about US fiscal deficits could also contribute to euro appreciation.