This is cognitive dissonance resolution — the mind re-balancing your past actions with your current beliefs, so you don’t feel like an idiot. But the cost is accuracy. You lose the lesson in exchange for comfort.

Which is why you’re now saying:

“Next time I’ll wait and long the bottom.”

So What Should We Actually Do?

- Acknowledge our human limits. Your brain will lie to you. Constantly. But if you expect the deception, you’re less likely to follow it.
- Study your own behavior, not just the chart. Ask: What did I feel during the crash? What did I think I saw? Where did my conviction collapse? That’s where your next edge is. Not in a fantasy 50x long.
- Focus on a robust long-term strategy.