🇾🇪⚔️🇸🇦📝 The defeat of the geopolitical West in Yemen will reconfigure West Asia no less than the US-Israeli defeat in the Iran war.

‘So the Saudi-Houthi war, while it is certainly endogenous to Saudi-Houthi relations, is also a proxy war between the two global coalitions. It is in part a contest between the war-making techniques and weapons at the disposal of the two sides. The outcome of this struggle will therefore have important consequences for the global balance of power. The side that prevails will emerge with much greater military prestige.’

‘We can therefore state with high confidence that the Saudis will eventually be forced to sue for peace and offer substantial concessions to the Houthis, up to and including recognizing them as the legitimate government of Yemen. This will be the second strategic defeat for the geopolitical West and a victory for the global insurgency against it.’

📝 Ryan Grim: Once the West recognizes that cheap drones and ballistic missiles — plus AI lowering the barrier of entry for their development — means that total victory and subjugation of smaller countries is no longer possible without unacceptably high costs, the result longterm *should* be a world at much more peace, where diplomacy actually matters as a means to keeping that peace

🔗 Policy Tensor