🇸🇩🇪🇷🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹⚔️🇪🇹🇸🇩 4 years after the Tigray war ended (600k dead), a new war started in northern Ethiopia. Federal forces seized Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region and continue to move northward.

At the same time, the new alliance between Tigray, Amhara Fano forces, Oromo resistance (and Eritrea), is launching many attacks against Ethiopian forces. In 2020 the TPLF retreated to the countryside and mountains, before launching a large counter-offensive liberating most of the Tigray region and reaching Dessie a year later and threatening to march upon Addis Ababa. Thus, the decision to abandon their capital city could be a strategy for later, as the ENDF has heavy armour and air support and the TPLF would likely not survive a pitched battle.

At the same time, important pressure is being put by Tigray forces from the region and the ones living in Sudan (Army 70) on the Welkait front, a disputed region of North-West Ethiopia under ENDF control. The Sudanese Armed Forces are allied with Tigray and Eritrea in this region.

This also explains why Ethiopia is allowing the Rapid Support Forces (Sudanese paramilitary) to use its territory to advance in Blue Nile state in southern Sudan, using its territory. Tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia are very high and cross border fighting between rebel groups and government forces are happening very often.

🔗 Clément Molin