📝 🇪🇹 🇸🇩 Woofers on X: We are on course for a terrible war in Ethiopia with dramatic regional consequences and I feel like it’s hardly getting any attention. The Tigray War saw the TPLF cut off from the outside world, smashed between Eritrea and the Ethiopian federal government. Now, the relationship has changed and the TPLF has friends in Asmara. The Sudanese Armed Forces are also eager to lend support, part of a longstanding relationship only strengthened by Ethiopia’s blatant support for the RSF.

Should the alliance between the TPLF, Fano and OLA hold together and should they be able to coordinate their actions (both in doubt long term) then there is a serious possibility that Addis Ababa loses control over vast portions of the country. If the ONLF can muster forces, it can throw the Somali region into disarray.

Though the OLA’s capacity to hold ground is in question, their widespread presence across Oromia means that federal forces are stretched thin.

Should a full war be launched, it will be the most serious crisis in Ethiopia since the civil war during the Cold War period. More serious than the Tigray War of just a few years ago.

📎 Woofers