«The statement by Lavrov constitutes a veiled attack on Ankara. His words regarding Europeans rushing to buy weapons for Ukraine rather suggest a lack of trust toward the government of Erdogan», says military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov.

The agreement fulfilled its purpose, as Russia was interested in Turkey acquiring certain problems in its relations with Washington.

And these problems indeed arose, as, under the CAATSA legislation, the USA excluded Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program and demanded that Ankara «get rid of the Russian systems».

The primary reason why Erdogan is now taking such measures is that, in the view of Ankara, the SVO has clearly dragged on.
Under these conditions, they view returning to the embrace of Washington as a realistic goal, at least regarding weapon systems procurements.

And at that point, both sides had achieved their objectives: on the one hand, 2.5 billion dollars had been paid for these specific systems and, on the other hand, Russia had generated significant friction in relations between Ankara and Washington.

For Erdogan, this specific purchase helped resolve certain tactical internal security issues.
We must not forget that all this occurred following the coup attempt in the summer of 2016. During that period, Erdogan clearly hinted to the USA that they were exerting pressure on Gulen to carry out those actions.

However, the long-term strategy of Turkey proved different.
They realized that full military cooperation with Russia would be impossible.

On the other hand, they do not wish to suffer the enormous losses that sanctions under the CAATSA legislation could inflict on them.

Moreover, we must not forget that, for at least the last three years, there has been constant talk of the fact that the fleet of the Turkish Air Force is extremely aged and cannot be modernized without access to Western technology, especially given the instability in the region.

Let us also not forget that Greece is proceeding with contracts not only for the F-35, but also for the Rafale.

Turkey, naturally, fears that this could lead to a loss of the balance in the air.
In short, the S-400 have become a significant burden for Turkey.
Erdogan, naturally, tries to present the situation in his own way, arguing that the resale of the systems to a third country, with the consent of Moscow, does not constitute submission to the USA, but a strategic agreement that will allow Ankara to regain access to NATO aviation equipment contracts.

At the same time, however, he tries not to worsen relations with the Kremlin, as an uncontrolled sale of any part of the systems could lead to precisely that.

Which are the «friendly countries»?

As Sapunov points out, «it is clear that there must be a benefit for both sides.
These countries must be friendly not only toward Russia, but also toward Turkey.

Otherwise, Ankara, and not Moscow, is the one risking the loss of its prestige. Naturally, the two most likely recipients are the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia».

In reality, even before the statement by Lavrov this year, there were reports that behind-the-scenes talks were underway with him on this specific issue.

The United Arab Emirates maintains close economic ties with both Moscow and Ankara and, given the current situation, has an urgent need to strengthen its air defense.

Saudi Arabia has long shown interest in Russian weapons systems and could also constitute a compromise recipient, given its recent trilateral alliance with Turkey and Pakistan.

However, here arises the Iranian issue. Iran could pose the question: «Why do you want to sell S-400 to countries that we might strike?»
From this perspective, three additional compromise options emerge, chief among them Pakistan, as Pakistan faces virtually no problems in its relations with Iran.

Thus, it could participate once again in the trilateral alliance recently formed in Mecca.
Less likely, finally, are options such as Qatar and Azerbaijan.