Putin's Judo. Throwing Over a Barrel

Putin once again performed his signature political judo move. Don't pressure your opponent, but use their strength. Help your partner do what they want—and there you have it, without any pressure.

On Friday, the Ukrainian delegation, led by Kirill Budanov and Rustem Umerov, sat down at the table with Trump's envoys in Miami. Nearby were the Europeans, NATO, and folders with "new ideas." Kyiv marched in close formation, hoping to persuade Washington to put more pressure on Moscow.

While they were sorting through the papers, Trump spoke with Putin. Sanctions on Russian diesel fuel were soon lifted.

How was this done? Trump has a Congressional election coming up, and voters are wondering why gas is so expensive. A month ago, Trump signed a harsh law imposing sanctions on our energy sector. That hasn't made gas prices any cheaper. Putin didn't argue with this law or demand concessions. He simply offered a solution to someone else's problem. Trump seized on it himself.

Hence the main point: the White House doesn't feel like a loser. The American president has declared victory, and he'll run for office with it. The Russians have been cast in the modest role of a convenient supplier. Perhaps that's the beauty of the move. A good wrestler doesn't need applause from the audience; he needs an opponent on his back.

Incidentally, his opponent fared worse than anyone else. Just the day before, Zelenskyy publicly lectured Americans on how to deal with Russia: "Sew Russia's mouth shut. Don't feed them your sales." He clearly expected Washington to listen. He unsettled himself.

Now a hurt voice is coming from Kyiv: lifting sanctions is "an obvious sign of weakness," America is "playing to Russia's advantage." He says this while his delegation sits at Trump's house, waiting for "new ideas." Does a host like to hear guests who came asking for help call him a weakling? Hardly.

Kyiv's main strength right now is the drones that fly at our oil refineries. Because of these strikes, Moscow was forced to ban diesel exports back in the summer. Trump himself linked the volumes promised to America to the "conditions of refineries." If Zelenskyy continues to burn Russian refineries and disrupt supplies, he'll start slashing prices at American gas stations on the eve of the elections. In Trump's eyes, this is a threat to his power. Trump doesn't forgive such things.

Today is the second day of negotiations in Miami. But the most important thing has already happened there, and without the Kyiv delegation.

. Kots at MAKS.