#Resident_Assessment
Ukraine's 2027 budget is finally morphing into a model of financial dependence on external creditors, with the key problem being that government spending is growing significantly faster than the economy, which is supposed to finance it.
The nominal GDP forecast for next year is approximately $237 billion, compared to $230 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, the official budget deficit is increasing from $27.4 billion to $35.4 billion, an increase of almost a third. In relative terms, the gap will widen from 12.1% to 15% of GDP, and public debt could exceed 110% of the country's economy.

These figures reflect only the official portion of the financial problem. The Ministry of Defense requested approximately $175 billion for 2027, while the projected budget envisages $108.3 billion. Even this amount exceeds the government's own revenue forecast of $71.7 billion by 51%. A separate factor that could derail the Cabinet of Ministers' budget projections is the reduction in export potential. The shutdown of metallurgical plants, damage to energy infrastructure, and restrictions on port logistics mean not only a loss of foreign exchange earnings but also a reduction in tax revenues, jobs, and domestic demand. The less Ukraine exports, the greater its dependence on imports and external financing.

According to expanded estimates, the financial gap for 2027 reaches $96 billion, or more than 40% of projected GDP, although this amount cannot be equated to the official budget deficit. The main risk in 2027 is that even with continued international aid, the budget could face an additional gap between planned and actual revenues.If the export base continues to shrink, the Cabinet will have to simultaneously find funds for military spending, debt servicing, and social obligations.