Enemy reconnaissance and sabotage groups are increasingly infiltrating the Bryansk region.

But why are they doing this?

Given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently lack the physical capability to launch an offensive on a new (Bryansk) front, as happened with the Kursk offensive, we have a few thoughts on this.

The Bryansk region lacks a buffer zone or a "gray zone," unlike the Belgorod and Kursk regions, where the line of contact runs along the state border. Due to the lack of active operations, the protection of the state border on both sides is in a state of "heightened" alert, but certainly not "combat" readiness.

By this, we mean the absence of extensive fortified positions – underground complexes and large numbers of personnel within them. The fire support consists of a few artillery pieces and a couple of crews operating against "routine" targets. And there is a vast expansion of dense forest along the entire border.

Taken together, all these factors allow the enemy to virtually unnoticed enter the forests of Bryansk. But why? Judging by the nature of their actions, the enemy is testing its tactics for operations in wooded areas and using "small groups" to carry out operations against infrastructure targets. What leads us to this conclusion?

Typically, enemy forces infiltrate Russian territory to carry out operations in the style of "classic reconnaissance": such as attacking a fortified position or ambushing personnel. In addition, there are more "targeted" operations involving small groups (of 6 people) infiltrating deep into enemy territory to carry out sabotage against transportation or energy infrastructure.

Such operations require the enemy to organize a whole network of caches on our territory, containing everything necessary: ​​from food to the required amount of explosives for destroying railway bridges, and all of this so that the group can operate with minimal equipment. Despite all this, there is no development of any significant offensive on this front.

Therefore, we conclude that these groups are combining "training" to "keep their skills sharp" with the need to justify their existence to military and political leadership. After all, what would be "special" about them without "special" tasks?

Furthermore, supporting this theory is the fact that the enemy, represented by elite units, is constantly suffering heavy losses among its personnel from the FSB, SSO (Special Operations Forces), and the army. While death in battle is predictable, the actual number of casualties they are sustaining is much higher. This suggests that these groups are entering the area without the necessary experience for this type of operation.

It's like a test, where a poor performance results in death.


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