CEBDA Events

Reminder

📢 iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on July 13, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 M. Dorfman

Talk: "Emotional Safe Havens Through Color: How Palette Characteristics Shape Art Market Prices in Times of Crisis"

This study examines whether color pricing in the art market shifts during crises and whether such shifts reflect financial or psychological distress. Using auction data on abstract paintings (2005–2023), the author finds that mean saturation carries an ~8.5% premium during COVID-19 — but not during the 2008 financial crisis. The premium moves with household confidence, not market volatility, pointing to an affective mechanism. A randomized experiment confirms the channel: induced anxiety raises willingness to pay for saturated works by 0.56 standard deviations, partially mediated through pleasure ratings. In crises with sustained psychological distress, color's affective properties become an autonomous source of aesthetic value.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on July 6, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 I. Nelidova & A. Nikolchenko — HSE University
Talk: "How an Artwork Looks Has Little to Do with Pricing at Auction — Context Is the Most Important: Geopolitics & Art"

Using data on ~500,000 Christie's transactions (2010–2026) with hedonic pricing, XGBoost, the Geopolitical Risk Index, and text embeddings, this study shows that art prices react to shocks in complex ways. COVID-19 and the Ukraine war generated the highest premiums (safe-haven effect), but local crises diverge: BLM protests (+12.7%) and Brexit (+9.9%) raised prices, while the 2022 UK political crisis lowered them (–2.6%). Russian shocks in 2022 had asymmetric effects — London dropped 8.4%, Paris rose 10.3% — signalling capital reallocation. Auction estimates explain 94–96% of price variance; text embeddings add ~1% more. The response is not uniform but depends on shock type, geography, and market segment.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

reminder

📢 iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on June 29, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 A. Levchenko & M. Stepanov — HSE University

Talk: "Does the Visual Similarity of New and Already Known Works of Art Affect the Pricing of New Ones?"

Traditional hedonic models treat visual content as a "black box." This study takes a relational approach: how does an artwork's visual similarity to previously sold works affect its auction price? Using data on ~54,000 artworks sold at Christie's and Phillips (2009–2025), the authors extract SigLIP embeddings and low-level visual features to construct novel similarity measures. Combining machine learning with hedonic pricing, they find that visual similarity carries economic significance beyond traditional factors — the market rewards originality within recognizable styles, not mere visual typicality.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on June 22, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Semyon Vassilyev — HSE University

Talk: "Color and Emotional Perception of Paintings as Factors in Pricing in the Modern and Contemporary Art Markets"

This study analyzes how color composition and emotional content of paintings affect their auction prices. Using data on 4,229 lots sold at Sotheby's (2022–2026), the author employs a hedonic pricing model with three layers of visual features: CIELAB color characteristics, pleasure/arousal indices, and CLIP-based semantic emotions (ArtEmis taxonomy). Results show that only orange and yellow have significant (negative) effects, while tonal contrast is the most robust color predictor. CLIP-based emotions — particularly awe, disgust, and excitement — significantly improve the model. The positive effect of disgust is interpreted as a premium for provocativeness and emotional intensity in the high-value contemporary art segment.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on June 10, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Aleksey Osipov, Egor Kozlov & Anton Nikolaev (HSE University)

Talk: "Daily Routines and Subjective Well-Being: Cross-Cultural Evidence from Panel IV and DML"

While much of the literature focuses on how activities correlate with happiness, this seminar asks the reverse question: what do daily routines reveal about well-being and labor supply? Using data from Russia and multinational surveys, the speakers analyze sleep, physical activity, screen time, and social interaction. Their empirical strategy combines panel IV, marginal structural models, and DML-based robustness checks. Key findings show robust positive associations between sleep, social interaction, and well-being. Evidence from Russian and U.S. time-use data also links non-working time allocation to weekly working hours.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

reminder

📢 Call for Papers — iCEBDA 2026
🗓 4–7 December 2026 | 📍 Xiamen, China

🔥 Join us at the 2nd International Conference on Econometrics and Big Data Analysis — a premier gathering of researchers, practitioners, and policymakers exploring the latest in:

• Econometric theory and causal inference
• Machine learning and Big Data in Economics and Finance
• Forecasting and financial modelling
• Robust statistical methods
• Business analytics and policy applications

🏛 Hosted by Xiamen University and jointly organized by the Centre for Big Data in Economics and Finance (HSE University) and the Paula and Gregory Chow Institute for Studies in Economics.

🎙 Keynote Speakers
• Prof. Marc Hallin (ECARES, ULB) — rank-based inference; dynamic factor models
• Prof. Peter R. Hansen (UNC Chapel Hill) — forecasting, volatility modelling; Model Confidence Set
• Prof. Hashem Pesaran (Cambridge) — panel-data econometrics; time series; GVAR
• Prof. Yixiao Sun (UC San Diego) — robust inference under temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal dependence

📌 Important Dates
• 1 August 2026 – Submission deadline (AoE)
• 15 August 2026 – Acceptance notification
• 15 October 2026 – Early registration

🌐 Details & Submission: www.bechair.online/iCEBDA-2026
📩 Contact: icebda.hse@gmail.com

📱Stay informed of all updates by joining our official iCEBDA 2026 Telegram group: https://t.me/+8ZjBxWtxL1RiYTNi

We look forward to your submissions and to meeting you in Xiamen!

iCEBDA 2026 Organizing Committee

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on June 5, 2026 at 16:00 (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Fabrizio Ghezzi - University of California San Diego

Talk: "Measuring Main Street from Wall Street"

While much of the existing macro-finance literature focuses on how stock markets respond to macroeconomic news, this seminar addresses the reverse question: what can stock market reactions reveal about the state of the real economy? The speaker decomposes asset returns into short- and long-run components, employs high-frequency return reactions to macroeconomic releases as an identification mechanism, and demonstrates that the resulting daily market-implied expectations closely track real economic indicators when aggregated to weekly, monthly, and quarterly frequencies.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

reminder

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on April 20, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Valentina Corradi (NYU Abu Dhabi)

Talk: "Sparsity Tests for High Dimensional Time Series Regression"

This seminar introduces a new Hausman-type test for exact sparsity in high-dimensional linear time series models — where the number of predictors may exceed the sample size. The null hypothesis assumes at most k₀ regressors have non-zero coefficients. The procedure requires no covariance matrix estimation, works under general dependence, and uses a sequential testing approach to determine the sparsity bound. The speaker establishes the validity of block bootstrap critical values and shows via simulations that the test performs well in finite samples. An empirical application to U.S. macroeconomic and financial data reveals that very sparse models often suffice, even with a large set of candidate predictors.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on March 23, 2026 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Lorenzo Trapani — University of Pavia

Talk: "A general randomized test for Alpha"

This seminar introduces a novel methodology for testing the null hypothesis of zero alphas (jointly zero pricing errors) in linear factor asset pricing models with observable and tradable factors. The proposed randomized test requires no covariance matrix estimation, accommodates strong cross-sectional dependence, and handles panels where the number of assets N may grow faster than the time periods T. The procedure is robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and non-Gaussian distributions. The empirical application illustrates the testing approach using linear factor models for S&P 500 constituents.


🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on February 16, 2026 at 17:00 (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Weifeng Jin — Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM)

Talk: "Estimation of Time Series Models Using the Empirical Distribution of Residuals"

This seminar introduces a novel estimation framework for general linear time series models, including those that are noninvertible or noncausal — representations increasingly used in macroeconomics and finance to capture nonlinear dynamics driven by future expectations. The proposed method exploits the empirical cumulative distribution function of residuals and relies on the generalized spectral cumulative function to characterize pairwise dependence across lags. The talk will cover asymptotic theory using smoothed CDF approximations, efficiency gains through scaling parameter selection, and finite-sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical illustration is provided by modeling the daily trading volume of Microsoft stock using noncausal autoregressive models.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on December 1, 2025 at 12:00 (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Yiannis Karavias (Brunel University London)

Talk: "Interactive, Grouped and Non-separable Fixed Effects: A Practitioner's Guide to the New Panel Data Econometrics"

This seminar will explore fundamental advances in panel data analysis. Discover how Interactive, Grouped, and Non-separable Fixed Effects move beyond traditional models to better capture unobserved heterogeneity. The speaker will provide a practical guide to new estimation methods and diagnostic tests, showing through empirical studies how these approaches can lead to significantly different—and more robust—results compared to conventional methods.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

Dear colleagues,
We welcome submissions to

Econometrics and Big Data Analysis - Proceedings of iCEBDA 2025
The proceedings volume is dedicated to recent advances and current issues in econometrics, business analytics, big data, and related fields. The volume includes several research papers presented at the International Conference on Econometrics and Big Data Analysis, iCEBDA 2025, held in Istanbul, Türkiye, on 11-14 September 2025 that provided an international forum for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to discuss current and future research directions in the above fields. The research presented in the volume relates, among others, to the following areas of research discussed at the conference:
• Crises, extremes, bubbles, tail risk, and structural breaks in economic and financial markets
• Financial contagion and dependence in economics and finance
• Robust econometric and statistical methods
• Machine and deep learning applications in econometrics, economics, and finance
• Econometrics for comparative economic studies
• Endogeneity in economic and econometric models
• Agent-based modeling and optimization methods
• Network analysis in economics and finance
• Econometrics for policy analysis
• Big data methods in economics and finance.
The research presented in the proceedings is of interest to researchers, students, professionals and policymakers concerned with the analysis and forecasting of economic and financial markets.

Editors: Rustam Ibragimov (Imperial College Business School and New Economic School)
Artem Prokhorov (the University of Sydney Business School)
Submissions by 15 December 2025 at https://meteor.springer.com/iCEBDA2025

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on November 10, 2025 at 12:00 (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Marco Barassi (University of Birmingham)

Talk: "Threshold Regression in Heterogeneous Panel Data with Interactive Fixed Effects"

This seminar will present research that introduces unit-specific heterogeneity into panel data threshold regression. The study develops a comprehensive asymptotic theory for models with heterogeneous thresholds, heterogeneous slope coefficients, and interactive fixed effects. The estimation methodology employs the Common Correlated Effects approach, maintaining computational simplicity while handling heterogeneous coefficients. The research also proposes tests for linearity and a modified information criterion for selecting between different model specifications.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on October 27, 2025 at 15:00 (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Stepan Novikov (Bank of Russia)

Talk: “Productivity and Efficiency Trends of Russian Firms in 2017–2023”

This seminar will present a stochastic frontier analysis of Russia's total factor productivity (TFP) from 2017-2023. The study decomposes TFP growth into shifts of the technological frontier and changes in firms' efficiency. The author assesses the distinct impacts of the pandemic and the 2022 crisis across economic sectors, revealing that efficiency changes were a primary driver of TFP dynamics. The results highlight a partial recovery in 2023, which largely bypassed exporters, wholesale trade, and the information and communication sectors.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars

📢 The iCEBDA Econometric seminar

Join us on October 17, 2025 at 12:00 noon (Moscow time, online via Zoom) for a research seminar by

🎓 Abderrahim Taamouti (University of Liverpool)

Talk: “Systemic Growth-at-Risk and Growth Spread Measures”

The seminar will present two novel sets of forward-looking macroeconomic metrics: Systemic Growth-at-Risk (GaR) Measures, which capture the cross-country transmission of growth risks, and Growth Spread Measures, which assess the net growth benefits of regional integration. Using advanced multivariate GARCH models, the study applies this framework to the European Union, revealing how integration simultaneously fosters shared growth potential and heightens exposure to systemic shocks.

🔗 Register here: https://economics.hse.ru/bigdata/seminars