Catrix Daily | Jul 13, 2026

Short-term holders are underwater again. Bottom signal, or just another trap?

AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 43/100 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉 45/100

Dollar strength 4w +0.65% (z=+1.37), yield curve z=-0.90 (26w pct=15.4%). Macro is still in risk-off mode.

Today's Focus: Market Cycle
→ BTC: MVRV 1.20, NUPL 0.17 (HOPE zone), Reserve Risk 0.00091 (10th pct), STH NUPL -0.14 (UNDERWATER). Low valuation cluster present but no reversal trigger; mid-momentum flat in range market.
→ ETH: MVRV 0.805, NUPL -0.14, Valuation Z-Score -0.43 (23rd percentile of 180d), Realized Price $2,243. MVRV at 0.80 and NUPL capitulation signal place ETH in cycle-bottom valuation territory

Fear is loud. Confirmation is quieter. Which one are you watching?
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