Catrix Daily | Jul 6, 2026

Short-term holders are underwater again. Bottom signal, or just another trap?

AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 35/100 | ETH: Slightly Bullish 📈 57/100

Dollar strength z=+1.88 (notable), yield curve z=-1.04 (12th pctile). Macro is still in risk-off mode.

Today's Focus: Market Cycle
→ BTC: MVRV 1.20, Valuation Z-score Percentile 16.1%, Network Unrealized Profit 0.164, STH NUPL -0.152 (Underwater). MVRV at 16th percentile with no reversal trigger — cheap but not extreme enough for contrarian signal
→ ETH: MVRV 0.795, NUPL -0.153, NUPL 30-day Improvement +0.170, Spent Output Profit Ratio 0.967. MVRV at 0.79 and NUPL in capitulation, but 30-day improvement visible

Fear is loud. Confirmation is quieter. Which one are you watching?
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