BTC Trunk

🚨 The market pulled back in February — but the bigger story may be what's happening beneath the surface.

Bitcoin briefly dropped from $78K ➝ $63K before closing the month around $67K. Volatility spiked, yet key signals suggest the market may be building a new base.

So what actually shaped crypto in February — and what could move the market in March? Let’s break it down 👇

⚡️ Macro Shock: Bitcoin fell from $78K ➡️ $63K, closing at $67K 📉, while $3.3B stablecoin inflows 💰 show early market resilience 💪.

📈 Japan “Takaichi Trade”: Nikkei surged, yen weakened, global capital may rotate from US tech & crypto into Japanese assets.

🌍 Middle East Risk: US-Israel strikes added a short-term risk premium, pushing gold and oil higher, Bitcoin remained a safe liquidity haven.

⚡️ AI & On-chain Innovation: Agentic AI tools and on-chain protocols rapidly deployed, opening new paths for crypto innovation.

💡 Market Insight: Stablecoin strength + BTC support indicates potential bottom; next rebound may be on the horizon 🚀

🔗 Full report: https://www.coinex.com/s/4E5

CoinEx – Your Crypto Trading Expert

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🔔 South Africa's Move to Regulate Cryptocurrency

📊 South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has announced plans to end the country's cryptocurrency regulatory vacuum by drafting new rules to integrate digital assets into the national capital flow management regime. This decision was revealed during a budget speech on February 25 and aims to incorporate crypto assets into the framework for cross-border capital movement.

⚖️ The announcement follows a period of legal uncertainty due to a landmark ruling by the Pretoria High Court in May 2025. In the case of Standard Bank v SARB, Judge Mandlenkosi Motha ruled that South Africa's 1961 exchange control rules do not apply to cryptocurrencies, effectively exempting them from capital restrictions until new legislation is enacted. This ruling criticized the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) for relying on outdated regulations and rejected the idea that cryptocurrencies qualify as money.

❗️ In response to the High Court's critique, Godongwana clarified that the government would not seek "exemptions" for cryptocurrencies. Instead, the SARB is set to publish a comprehensive framework detailing parameters, administrative responsibilities, and reporting requirements for all cross-border crypto transactions. This framework will complement existing anti-money laundering and fraud prevention measures.

🔄 However, the SARB's appeal against the High Court's ruling has faced criticism. Historically, SARB officials have been reluctant to refer to cryptocurrencies as currency, preferring terms like crypto assets or cyber tokens. Additionally, while the South African Revenue Service (SARS) aims to tax crypto gains at the highest rates as regular income, the SARB is fighting for the right to regulate cryptocurrencies under the same strict rules applied to foreign legal tender.

📈 Bitcoin ETFs See Inflows After Losing Streak

📊 Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended their recent losing streak with an inflow of $88 million on February 20. This marked a significant shift after days of steady redemptions. Spot bitcoin funds saw a net inflow of $88.04 million, primarily driven by Blackrock’s IBIT, which added $64.46 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC, which pulled in $23.59 million. Total trading activity was robust, with $3.70 billion exchanged.

📉 In contrast, ether ETFs remained relatively unchanged. Blackrock’s ETHA attracted $1.78 million while 21shares’ TETH saw $687,700 in inflows. However, a $2.45 million outflow from Fidelity’s FETH offset most of these gains, resulting in a marginal net inflow of just $17,210.

➡️ Solana ETFs continued to gain traction, posting $3.78 million in net inflows led by Bitwise’s BSOL with $3.05 million and Franklin Templeton’s SOEZ adding $728,870. Trading volume for solana totaled $35.49 million.

🚫 XRP ETFs saw no trading activity during the session, leaving net assets unchanged at $1.02 billion.

🔄 Friday’s flows indicate a cautious but notable return to bitcoin exposure after several days of selling pressure. Ether remained steady but lacked strong movement, while solana attracted consistent demand. XRP remained inactive, highlighting a week characterized by selective positioning rather than widespread risk-taking.

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🔼 Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Sees Significant Increase Amid Low Revenue

📈 Bitcoin's mining difficulty experienced a sharp increase of 14.73% on Thursday, reversing a previous decline of 11.16% that occurred two weeks earlier. This adjustment, which took place at block height 937440, highlights the volatile nature of the mining landscape where rapid changes are common.

📉 The earlier decrease in difficulty was the most significant since 2021 and was partly due to an Arctic storm that affected operations in the United States. Miners had to reduce their activities to alleviate pressure on the power grid. However, once conditions improved, they resumed operations with greater intensity, leading to the recent spike in difficulty.

⚡️ The network's hashrate surpassed 1 zettahash per second (ZH/s), resulting in shorter block intervals and setting the stage for the difficulty adjustment. This latest recalibration not only reversed the previous drop but also exceeded it, marking a notable shift in the mining environment.

📊 This adjustment is reminiscent of past significant increases, such as the 21.53% rise in May 2021. Since then, there have been several notable gains, but Thursday's increase stands out due to the current low revenue levels for miners. Despite the rise in hashrate and accelerated block production, miner revenue has decreased further, with earnings currently at $29.30 per petahash per second (PH/s).

🚀 XRP Surges as Ripple CEO Joins U.S. Regulatory Committee

📈 XRP has experienced a significant price increase, trading at $1.52609, up 8.09% in the last 24 hours. This rise follows Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse's appointment to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee. The committee advises on blockchain, AI, and digital asset policy, indicating increased regulatory engagement with industry leaders.

During XRP Community Day, Garlinghouse described XRP as the "North Star" of Ripple’s strategy

and suggested that 2026 could be a pivotal year for crypto markets. This aligns with recent developments such as Binance's integration of RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, which has boosted the stablecoin's market capitalization to $1.5 billion.

📊 Technical indicators show strong momentum for XRP, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 81.87, indicating overbought conditions that may require consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also reflects bullish momentum. However, trading near the upper Bollinger Band suggests a potential cooling phase if momentum fades.

If XRP continues to hold above the $1.48–$1.47 support band defined by the moving averages,

the technical structure remains constructive with $1.54240 as the immediate upside reference. A decisive break above this level would reinforce bullish continuation. Conversely, a downturn in RSI or a contraction in the MACD histogram could signal waning momentum.

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📉 Analyst Predicts Potential XRP Dip Below $1 Amid Market Weakness

🌐 A cryptocurrency analyst has warned that XRP could drop below the $1 mark, with a potential decline to $0.85 as downside pressure intensifies and the broader crypto market shows signs of weakness. The analyst, Tara, shared her insights on social media platform X, indicating that deeper macro support near $0.87 remains in play amid the ongoing correction.

📊 Tara outlined a short-term rebound scenario but cautioned that broader market weakness could trigger another leg lower. She identified $1.30 as potential interim support and $1.65 as resistance during a retrace before renewed downside risk emerges. In response to a question about a possible double bottom in the $1.20-$1.30 range, she stated:

This could bring XRP down to ~$1.30 as short-term support with another wave up expected as high as the .5 at $1.65- now turned resistance.

However, she also warned:

A new low is still possible as far down as $.85.

🔗 Linking XRP’s outlook to Bitcoin’s projected move, Tara explained that a decline in BTC to $52,200 support would likely push XRP down to its .786 Fibonacci support level near $0.87. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.36, below the price level at which it was trading when the analyst issued the prediction.

❓ US adds 130,000 jobs in January, beating forecasts despite massive payroll revisions

‼️ The Labor Department reported Wednesday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 last month, well above economists’ forecasts of 70,000 and a sharp acceleration from December’s downwardly revised gain of 48,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%, defying expectations for a steady reading.

🔔 However, the report also included significant benchmark revisions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics erased roughly 898,000 jobs from payroll estimates covering April 2024 through March 2025. As a result, total nonfarm employment growth for 2025 was revised down substantially, from 584,000 to 181,000.

🔖 The revisions suggest the labor market was considerably weaker over the past year than previously reported, even as January’s headline figures point to renewed hiring momentum at the start of 2026.

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🏔 Bitcoin Finding Footing or Flirting with the Abyss: $72.8K as a New Lifeline

📉 As of 8 AM ET on February 4, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at $76,065, following a volatile 24-hour range between $72,863 and $79,113. With a market capitalization of $1.51 trillion and a trading volume of $74.04 billion, the digital pulse remains turbulent. While Jamie Redman notes hints of recovery, the technical landscape suggests that bears are still whispering from the shadows.

📉 The daily chart shows a descent characterized by lower highs and lower lows since the $97,900 peak. The recent low of $72,863 now serves as the critical boundary between a total breakdown and a potential bottom. Structural resistance has shifted, with former support zones at $80,000–$81,000 and $88,000–$90,000 now acting as formidable ceilings.

⚖️ On the 4-hour timeframe, equilibrium follows chaos as the price hovers between $75,500 and $77,000. Long downward wicks near $73,000 indicate buyer interest, yet the trend remains bearish until Bitcoin can break and hold above $79,000. Short-term stabilization on the 1-hour chart is viewed as cautious treading, with immediate resistance pressing down from $77,000–$77,500.

🔍 Technical oscillators present a bifurcated view for analysts. The RSI at 27 and the Stochastic Oscillator at 18 both signal seller exhaustion in oversold territory, supported by a CCI of −137. However, the MACD at −3,730 remains a major cautionary signal. Moving averages offer no relief, as every EMA and SMA from the 10-day ($80,908) to the 200-day ($103,319) towers above the current price.

🐂 The bullish verdict rests on the successful bounce from $72,863 and oversold technical indicators. A confirmed breakout above $79,000 could trigger a recovery toward $81,000. Conversely, the bearish verdict emphasizes that Bitcoin has not cleared its technical overhead, and any rally risks becoming a "bull trap" until the pattern of lower highs is decisively broken.

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🚢 US Policy Shifts as Citgo Resumes Venezuelan Oil Purchases

🛢 Following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, reports indicate that the United States sold the first batch of Venezuelan oil for $500 million. This occurs as oil, the world's second-largest asset by market cap, has risen nearly 14% since the start of 2026 amid geopolitical tensions. Citgo Petroleum has reportedly purchased Venezuelan crude for the first time in seven years, marking a major pivot in energy relations.

⚖️ The US strategy shifted after Nicolas Maduro was captured by American forces on January 3, 2026, under an order from President Trump. Currently held in the MDC in Brooklyn, he faces charges of narco-terrorism and cocaine importation conspiracy. During his court appearance, Maduro stated:

I am innocent.

on January 5–6, 2026. His next hearing is set for March 17, 2026, while Delcy Rodriguez serves as interim president.

🧪 Venezuelan oil from the Orinoco Belt is highly viscous and sour, requiring light American diluents like naphtha for transport and refining. According to Reuters, Citgo acquired a cargo of approximately 500,000 barrels of this dense crude. The Trump administration aims to leverage abundant light US oil to process these heavy Venezuelan blends, which was previously restricted by SEC or OFAC related sanctions.

📉 With spot prices for US oil up 13.96% this year and trading around $64.74, the influx of Venezuelan supply could exert downward pressure on global prices. Exxon and other major firms may see expanded roles as US interests are secured. Analysts suggest Venezuela could generate higher revenues than under previous sanctions, as oil is no longer sold at steep discounts.

🪙 USDU: The First USD-Backed Stablecoin Registered by the UAE Central Bank

🌍 Universal Digital Intl Limited has made a significant announcement regarding its stablecoin, USDU. On January 29, 2026, in Abu Dhabi, it was revealed that USDU is now registered by the Central Bank of the UAE as a Foreign Payment Token under the Payment Token Services Regulation (PTSR). This milestone makes Universal the first Registered Foreign Payment Token Issuer in the UAE. The reserves for USDU are held on a 1:1 basis in safeguarded onshore accounts at Emirates NBD and Mashreq, with Mbank serving as a strategic banking partner. Additionally, Aquanow has been appointed as the global distribution partner, facilitating USDU–AECoin conversion to support domestic settlement mechanisms.

💼 The significance of this development lies in USDU's provision of a regulated, USD-denominated settlement option for digital assets in the UAE. In this region, payments for digital assets and derivatives must be conducted in either fiat currency or a Registered Foreign Payment Token. This regulatory framework supports institutional uptake, enhances transparency through monthly reserve attestations, and promotes interoperability where permitted by local regulations. Juha Viitala, CEO of Universal, emphasized that

USDU sets a new benchmark for regulated digital value.

However, the availability and use of USDU are subject to UAE regulatory requirements and necessitate integrations with institutional partners and market infrastructures.

📅 Key FAQs regarding USDU include its regulatory status as the first USD-backed stablecoin registered by the Central Bank of the UAE, its local launch date on January 29, 2026, the holding and attestation of reserves at Emirates NBD and Mashreq on a 1:1 basis with monthly independent attestations, and the role of Aquanow as the global distribution partner enabling institutional access across the UAE and other regulated markets.

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🔚 Entropy Startup Winding Up: Founder Tux Pacific Announces Return of Capital to Investors

👋 Tux Pacific, the founder and CEO of Entropy, has announced the winding up of the company after four years of operations, which included several pivots and two rounds of layoffs. The decision comes after the team worked on a crypto automations platform that integrated threshold cryptography, trusted execution environments (TEEs), and artificial intelligence (AI) during the latter half of 2025. Pacific publicly addressed this decision, acknowledging support from A16z and offering assistance to remaining staff in finding new roles.

💰 The importance of this wind-up lies in the return of capital to investors and the recognition that the core product was not deemed venture scale, which limited further fundraising efforts. Pacific also mentioned a planned break and a shift in focus towards pharmaceutical research on estradiol formulations and hormone delivery for women and transgender HRT. He invited experts in pharma or medicine to reach out for potential collaboration.

📅 Key points from the announcement include:
- Tux Pacific announced the wind-up of Entropy.
- The team worked on the crypto automations platform in the latter half of 2025.
- Capital will be returned to investors subject to final approvals.
- Pacific invites local candidates and pharma experts to contact him directly.

💱 Ripple Partners with DXC Technology to Integrate Blockchain into Traditional Banking

🌍 Ripple is advancing the integration of blockchain technology into traditional finance through a strategic partnership with DXC Technology. This collaboration aims to embed crypto custody and payment solutions into a core banking platform that manages trillions in global deposits.

📅 On January 21, 2026, DXC Technology announced its partnership with Ripple, focusing on enhancing digital asset custody and payment capabilities for regulated financial institutions. DXC's Hogan core banking environment will incorporate Ripple’s blockchain-based tools, supporting $5 trillion in deposits and 300 million accounts worldwide.

DXC integrates Ripple’s institutional-grade blockchain technology into its Hogan core banking platform, which supports $5 trillion in deposits and 300 million accounts globally

👤 Sandeep Bhanote, Global Head and General Manager of Financial Services at DXC, emphasized the need for secure custody and seamless payment capabilities for digital assets to enter the financial mainstream. He described the partnership as a means for banks to engage with digital assets while maintaining their existing operational frameworks.

💡 As banks and fintechs face increasing pressure to modernize, this partnership aims to transition institutions from limited pilot programs to live production environments. Joanie Xie, Vice President and Managing Director for North America at DXC, explained that integrating digital asset custody and payment functionality directly into core banking platforms supports secure and compliant deployment at an enterprise scale.

🔗 The collaboration also aligns with Ripple Payments, a licensed cross-border payment solution, and Ripple Custody, which facilitates the management of digital assets, stablecoins, and real-world assets. Together, DXC and Ripple position their combined offering as a bridge between legacy financial infrastructure and on-chain finance, enabling banks to adopt crypto-related services while preserving stability and compliance.

It enables compliant, enterprise-scale adoption of digital assets without changing mission-critical banking systems

🌍 India Proposes Linking BRICS CBDCs for Cross-Border Payments

🇮🇳 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has suggested that the upcoming 2026 BRICS summit in India should include a proposal to link the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) of BRICS nations. This initiative aims to facilitate cross-border trade finance and tourism payments among member countries, which include Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa.

🔗 The focus of this proposal is on interoperable technology, governance rules, and settlement mechanisms such as bilateral foreign-exchange swaps. While it has the potential to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar, the RBI emphasizes that it is “not aimed at promoting de-dollarization.” Any implementation would require consensus among member nations and consideration of jurisdictional sensitivities.

🗣 The RBI's proposal highlights the growing interest among BRICS countries to explore alternative payment systems that could enhance financial cooperation and reduce transaction costs. However, it also raises geopolitical concerns regarding the potential impact on U.S. dollar dominance in international trade.