🔍 Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst, is challenging the growing skepticism surrounding Bitcoin's four-year cycle. He argues that the data still supports this traditional pattern until at least 2026. Woo compares the misinterpretation of social media to misunderstanding a heartbeat's existence when its pace varies.
if your heart beats at 70 bpm and drops slightly while you sleep, it does not mean a resting heartbeat no longer exists just because the timing varied
Woo explains. He suggests that minor deviations in timing or intensity due to external factors do not undermine the fundamental health of the four-year cycle driven by supply and demand mechanics.
⚖️ Woo's perspective contrasts with industry leaders like Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and researcher Ryan Rasmussen. They argue that the 2024–2026 period signifies a permanent shift in Bitcoin's macro reality. They believe that the forces driving these cycles, such as halving and leverage-fueled busts, are weaker than before. They assert that the influx of institutional capital through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is creating a prolonged bull market without the violent crashes of the past.
📈 Experts interviewed by Bitcoin News support this view, stating that institutional capital flows and ETF demand now shape Bitcoin's trajectory more than miner reward halvings. This shift has resulted in slower, steadier movements rather than the sharp boom-and-bust patterns of earlier cycles. They argue that Bitcoin has outgrown its halving-driven DNA and is now influenced more by institutional adoption and macroeconomic forces.
No, that was Murad’s fund,” Woo explained. “My first fund was Crest in 2022; it’s 4 years old and is still operational today having delivered consistent returns
Woo responded to a critic questioning his credibility. He pointed to two primary drivers supporting the cycle: the internal halving supply shock and the four-year global liquidity cycle that determines risk-on/risk-off behavior.
Two impacts: internal halvening supply shock and 4-year global liquidity cycle determining risk on/off
Woo noted that Bitcoin has historically led the macro market into risk-off environments. He mentioned that the current federal injection of billions into the market may eventually fuel the cyclical expansion he expects to continue.