📈 Perpetual futures are becoming a significant force in global price discovery, challenging traditional exchanges to adapt or risk obsolescence. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex, emphasized this shift in a recent publication, stating that crypto-native structures are rapidly surpassing legacy derivatives.
Why will derivatives trading volume across the world and across all financial assets migrate from dated futures and options contracts to never-expiring perps?
Hayes posed this question to highlight the growing tension between conventional clearinghouses and the new margin systems designed for high-leverage, round-the-clock participation.
📊 He pointed out that equity perpetuals are expected to see significant growth by 2026 as their continuous access and concentrated liquidity draw in both speculative and hedging activities.
Equity perps will become the hottest product of 2026,
he predicted, noting that both centralized and decentralized exchanges are poised to expand their offerings in response to rising interest in these instruments.
🌍 Hayes also discussed how perpetual contracts could become the preferred method for managing overnight and weekend index risks, particularly during geopolitical or macroeconomic events that occur outside the operating hours of traditional exchanges.
I predict that by the end of 2026, price discovery for the largest US tech stocks and the key US indices (i.e. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) will happen on perps markets serving retail,
he projected. He suggested that political momentum in the United States could support the development of crypto markets through 2029,allowing international regulators to align with this stance.
🚨 Hayes warned traditional exchanges that failure to adapt to continuous, crypto-style derivatives could lead to a loss of relevance as liquidity shifts towards platforms offering deeper leverage and uninterrupted access.
Therefore, in 2025, it’s time for the TradFi to adapt or die to perps and other crypto innovations,
he stated.