Inflation Data:
- PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index): +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations → neutral.
- Core PCE (ex-food & energy): +0.4% m/m vs. expected +0.3% → negative, signals persistent inflation.
- Core PCE y/y: +2.8% vs. expected +2.7% → slightly higher, also negative.
The Fed closely tracks Core PCE as its key inflation indicator. Higher-than-expected growth may delay or reduce rate cut expectations.
Income & Spending:
- Personal income: +0.8% m/m (expected +0.4%) → positive, stronger than expected.
- Personal spending: +0.4% m/m (expected +0.5%) → slightly weaker.
- Real personal spending: +0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) → weaker.
This could suggest that consumers are not as active as they could be, despite income growth—possibly due to inflation concerns or economic uncertainty.
Conclusion:
- Inflation data is negative (especially Core PCE).
- Consumer data is mixed: strong income but weaker spending.
Post #30
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