2018?

October: The S&P 500 declined ~7% as rising treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations contributed to a sharp drop in equities.
November: The midterms produced a divided Congress. The political stability caused an immediate relief rally and the S&P500 ended the month ~2% higher.
December: The relief rally didn’t last long. The Fed hiked again in December and projected more hikes into 2019. US-China trade tensions were high. Political noise picked up post-midterms with threats of a government shutdown and partisan investigations. The S&P 500 fell ~9% in December and reached its 2018 low on Christmas Eve, briefly entering bear market territory.
Anything sound familiar?
Overall, the S&P 500 fell ~14% during Q4 2018 despite the historically bullish midterm seasonality. I’m not saying this scenario will definitely play out, but the similarities to 2018 are too big to ignore, and we should be prepared. Political seasonality becomes much less reliable when yields and macro conditions are pushing in the opposite direction.

https://www.geigercap.com/p/prepare-yourself-for-q4