A 1-percentage-point drop in long-term Treasury yields could translate into an estimated 21.8% one-year total return for $TLT.

With the chart assuming 5.3% income, the potential outcomes look very different from the low-yield era.

Estimated one-year total returns:

📉 Yields fall 2 points: +41.5%
📉 Yields fall 1 point: +21.8%
➡️ Yields unchanged: +5.3%
📈 Yields rise 1 point: −8.1%
📈 Yields rise 2 points: −18.3%

These scenarios include income and estimated price changes based on duration and convexity.

The income provides a cushion, although another sharp rise in yields could still produce substantial losses.

Long-duration Treasuries now offer meaningful income alongside significant upside potential if yields decline. Whether that upside materializes depends on where long-term rates go from here.