JPM: JPM's trading desk, after moving to "Tactically Cautious" at the start of September, have gone back to their "Tactically Bullish" call seeing a top in bond yields and oil prices. They also note:
Macro Fundamentals – the Flash PMIs reflect stronger than expected / priced-in growth which should support hiring, consumption, and corporate earnings... current economic levels suggest that the earnings expectations are too low;
Consumer Strength – there are fears surrounding the Consumer’s ability to navigate the inflation / rates environment and yet we continue to see spending defy expectations, supporting the economy, and refuting the K- shaped hypothesis. Now, the labor market is improving and supporting better consumer outcomes;
Earnings Expectations – after printing a +52% earnings growth in 26Q2 the market sees ~29% for 26Q3, which may prove light, as all 11 sectors are expected to see positive revenue and positive EPS growth;
Bond Yields May Stabilize – with growth inflecting higher and inflation data expected to be flat-to-dovish yields may find support at these levels. Jay Barry sees the 10Y yield moving from 5.18% to 5.20% over the next month and then ending the year at 5.05%. This would reduce bond vol and some of the bearish pressure on stocks; and,
Improving Technicals – here we flag improving seasonality, the potential for heightened Retail investor participation, and light positioning.
(via ZeroHedge)
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