■ Third: The Military Option

Some may propose that Israel escalate its military operations, leading to the destruction of large parts of southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. This would weaken Hezbollah, but without eliminating it, while Lebanon would suffer widespread destruction and an even greater collapse. This course could ultimately leave Hezbollah in a situation resembling that of Hamas: a wounded organization, decentralized in its management, surrounded by an aura of myth, and difficult to eliminate completely through political means.

(Our assessment: This is the worst option, as it would lead to the destruction of Lebanon without any guarantee of achieving Hezbollah’s strategic defeat.)

■ Fourth: The State Reconstruction Program

This is the only option that would allow Hezbollah to be separated from its broader system. Rather than attacking Hezbollah as an organization, the Lebanese state and its international partners would have to offer something Hezbollah cannot match: security, reconstruction, compensation, the dignity of the state, economic recovery, international guarantees, and a genuine future for the south within the Lebanese state.

(Our assessment is that this is the only path that would allow President Trump to announce an achievement: a peace framework, a reconstruction program, a weakened Iranian proxy, and a transformed state—all objectives that could be achieved within a single U.S. presidential term and at a fraction of the cost of a permanent war.)