What Are Hezbollah’s Options?

■ First: The Fall of the Iranian Regime and the Fall of Hezbollah

The most straightforward theoretical outcome, but the least feasible Lebanese strategy, is that the collapse of the Iranian regime or a dramatic decline in its capabilities would deprive Hezbollah of its strategic depth, funding, weapons supplies, ideological reference point, and regional role. But the reality is more complicated. Hezbollah would not simply disappear, as it has become deeply rooted within Lebanon through politics, security, social welfare, religious legitimacy, municipal influence, social dependency, and armed deterrence.

(Our assessment is that betting on the fall of the regime in Iran cannot be considered a strategy, nor can Lebanon afford to wait for it.)

■ Second: Protracted Negotiations, Disarmament, and Reintegration

Some advocate a traditional diplomatic path based on gradual negotiations, phased disarmament, and the reintegration of fighters, accompanied by guarantees and their incorporation into state institutions. However, this option is likely to face high failure rates unless Iran is fully engaged in the process and forms part of the deal, or there is a shift in the position of Hezbollah’s leadership that leads it to conclude that its current approach is no longer effective or sustainable.

Hezbollah does not view its weapons merely as a bargaining chip; rather, it sees them as an expression of identity, a tool of deterrence, a means of preserving Iran’s regional influence, and an element of protecting the Shiite community.

(Our assessment is that this option is worthy of consideration, but fragile. It is unlikely to produce a result, particularly if Hezbollah is expected to relinquish its armed influence before the Lebanese state becomes credible and capable and possesses an effective protection network.)