High confidence in this one.

Safiullin has been playing some great tennis lately, but most of the edge on this play comes from a fatigue fade on Wawrinka (it’s very hot) and the fact that he will receive a wildcard at the US open. I doubt he wants to be in Cancun for very long grinding this tournament.

Fritz ML is also a fatigue fade against Nakashima. Nakashima absolutely scammed his last win against Borges and that won’t happen against someone like Fritz who can rely on his serve much better than Borges can.