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Axis of Ordinary

@axisofordinary

Memetic and cognitive hazards.

Substack: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
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Post #9474 629
More links:

1. A critical look at Lean4 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHhGa3iQBQcdSifFL/a-critical-look-at-lean4-1

2. Harness Learning Enables Generalizable Test-Time Adaptation https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35738

3. Evo2: Evolving the Evolver through Weight-Harness Co-Evolution https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13025

4. From AlphaGo to AlphaZero, reinforcement learning produced strategies that surprised expert players. AlphaZero learned from experience at scale, without human demonstrations. AlphaNIST brings this philosophy to contact-rich, high-precision robotic assembly in simulation. An end-to-end policy learns how to complete the task, without prescribed manipulation stages. https://alpha-nist.github.io/

5. Can LLMs produce original research worth reading? MathArena gave four agents 48 hours and a $500 research budget each. GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol delivered technically strong but off-topic posts; GLM-5.3 found a modest insight but analyzed it poorly. The authors judged only Opus-5.5’s post useful, though it still needed editing. It proposed a new benchmark—and performed worst on it. https://matharena.ai/llm_blog_posts/

6. FrontierML: a challenging, end-to-end machine learning benchmark https://www.frontierml.org/blog/

7. 100+ reactions to 100+ solutions https://proofsandprompts.com/2026/10/08/100-reactions-to-100-solutions/

8. Linus Torvalds Working On A Hefty Linux Kernel Improvement With Claude Code https://www.phoronix.com/news/Linus-Torvalds-Claude-Code

9. How biological synapses self-assemble gradient learning https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2606245123
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Post #9472 610
El Trumpo
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Post #9471 746
Google awarded a $250,000 bounty for a full-chain exploit to XBOW. They spent 6 days and $40,000 of compute with GPT-5.6 Sol to find a critical vulnerability in Chrome.

Chrome is one of the most hardened pieces of software on the planet, used by more than half the world’s population.

A full-chain exploit lets an attacker take total control of a machine, where they can read every email, password and bank login the user types. You don’t need to download anything or click a phishing link. Visiting the wrong site is enough.

The cost of finding truly critical vulnerabilities is collapsing, for attackers and defenders alike. Assume your software is exploitable.

Read more: https://xbow.com/blog/xbow-built-a-chrome-full-chain-exploit
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Post #9469 622
Anthropic: "At Anthropic, coding is no longer the bottleneck to building systems or doing research. Claude is able to autonomously iterate on research loops, micro-optimize complex programs, and build new services from the ground up at a speed and scale we haven’t seen before. The bottleneck, now, is all of the developer infrastructure built for human scale: source control, builds, and CI."

Read more: https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/redesigning-source-control

See also: AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter https://www.anthropic.com/research/self-replicating-ai
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Post #9465 621
Original source: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-476-creativity-and-rsi

[Note: By "full RSI" he means “a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself” or “no-human-involved AI R&D.” This is neither sufficient nor strictly necessary for "FOOM", as in "a fast, local leap to overwhelming superiority."]
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Post #9462 697
The crazy thing is that what we're witnessing today was predicted both on American and Russian TV years in advance.
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Post #9461 1.23K
Whenever Zelensky proposes an immediate ceasefire, Russia and its useful idiots typically respond by calling it a sign of weakness and proof that Russia is winning, and that it should therefore not be accepted.

Now that Trump claims Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelensky, does that mean Russia is losing?

This isn't an isolated case. Russian propaganda in general is just enormously self-contradictory.

If Russia moves forward, this is a sign that Ukraine is collapsing. If Ukraine conducts several successful counteroffensives, like it did this year, the Russian bots are saying that Russia doesn't really care about territory and that this is a war of attrition.

Ukraine is allegedly only able to target Russian refineries because America is helping them. Yet Trump threatens to withhold intelligence to pressure Ukraine to stop attacking refineries.

Europe is said to be incredibly weak and that Russia would just steamroll it. Yet Europe allegedly produces millions of drones for Ukraine and hundreds of stand-off weapons, enabling daily deep strikes against Russia (remember, not even the United States were able to sustain a deep strike campaign against Iran for more than a few weeks without depleting their stocks).

Europe is allegedly overrun by Muslims. Yet Russia not only has more Muslims but Putin literally kisses the Quran and calls Islam "an outstanding element of Russia’s cultural makeup, an integral, organic part of its history" (source: official Kremlin website).

I could go on. The whole narrative is really quite embarrassing. But it's apparently more than enough for the retards and third world audience it is aimed at.
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Post #9460 713
REPORTER: “You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides say they haven’t agreed to that”

TRUMP: “They agreed. You know why? Because I said, 'You agree' — that's why. They agreed because I said they agreed”
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Post #9459 780
France currently gets lots of negative attention on social media. But there's actually some pretty impressive stuff happening:

- AI: France's Mistral just released a surprisingly capable frontier AI model despite having far less computing power than American competitors.

- Nuclear deterrence: Successfully tested the M51.3, one of the world's most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

- Battery gigafactories: Three major factories are operational or ramping up, with more under development. Renault is manufacturing electric cars with domestically produced batteries.

- Nuclear power: Six new nuclear reactors are planned, with construction-site preparations already underway.

- Electricity: Record electricity exports in 2025, with over 95% of generation coming from low-carbon sources.

- Aerospace: France is one of the relatively few countries capable of developing, manufacturing and exporting an advanced fighter aircraft with a largely domestic industrial supply chain. Dassault's Rafale fighter jet continues to enjoy major international export success.

- Space: Ariane 6 is restoring Europe's independent access to space and attracting major commercial orders. Amazon announced six additional Ariane 6 launches for its Starlink competitor.

- Quantum computing: French companies like Pasqal are developing advanced quantum processors.

- Foreign investment: France remains Europe's leading destination for foreign investment projects for the seventh consecutive year.

P.S. France's achievements become considerably more striking when you account for its population. France has only about 69 million people, compared with approximately 342 million in the United States and 1.4 billion in China.
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Post #9458 1.87K
The Art of the Deal
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Post #9457 715
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Post #9456 721
Something I haven't really taken into account when it comes to "pacing the frontier" is that people like Musk, having sold their soul to Trump, will be in deep trouble if the Democrats take Congress and the White House. This provides a strong incentive to achieve ASI and render the U.S. government irrelevant before 2029.
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Post #9455 1.51K
It's still quite puzzling how Russia apparently thought they could attack Ukrainian data centers without retribution. Same with warehouses. They attacked Ukrainian warehouses and their biggest logistics distributor got pounded. Will they ever learn?

https://x.com/FirePointUA/status/2109390007622365231
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Post #9453 815
Jacob Tsimerman, who won the Fields Medal this year:

Pretty soon we're going to have proofs that no one understands... and based on that mathematics, other things are going to work. Does a train run, even if no one understands the mechanics by which it runs? Yes, it does.


Watch the full interview (>2 months old): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uIJdXmB4vE
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