arbitrage between Opinion and Polymarket

prediction markets often disagree on probabilities for the same event

how it works in practice:

> find the same event on both platforms
> check YES price on one side and NO price on the other
> if YES + NO < 1.00 spread exists

there’s a tool designed specifically to help spot these kinds of discrepancies:
oxygendelta.com

how the tool actually works:

> it automatically matches identical events between Opinion and Polymarket
> parses live orderbooks (not just last traded price)
> lets you choose bid / ask / mid mode
> calculates whether YES on one side + NO on the other creates a spread
> checks liquidity depth so the setup is executable
> lets you set your budget and calculates exact share sizing

instead of manually calculating anything, the tool shows:

> how many shares to buy on each platform
> how much capital goes to each leg
> payout if YES wins
> payout if NO wins
> net locked spread

NFA, just an explanation of how the mechanism works